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Sometime during the former night or former morning time of day of June 11 and June 12 , 1962 , John Anglin , his chum Clarence , and Frank Morris escape from Alcatraz . The morning bed check revealed dummy drumhead made of sticking plaster , flesh - tone paint , and real human hair . Despite near twenty long time of investigation , the FBI never discovered if the Isle of Man had successfully escaped or go bad attempt .
Although it ca n’t solve the enigma once and for all , new researchfrom a Dutch teamshowswhat term would have been necessary for a jury-rigged raft to make it to nation and not get swept out to sea . Their role model was to begin with created to analyze the impact of sea - level rise , but they realized it might help shed light on this decades - old mystery by combining their " high - resolution hydrodynamic simulation of the San Francisco Bay " with historical tide selective information from that night to plot different boat routes .
" We did n’t know on the nose when the inmate set in motion their sauceboat , or their precise starting breaker point , and so we settle to unloosen 50 ‘ boat ’ every 30 minutes between 20.00 and 04.00 from a range of possible escape spots at Alcatraz to see where they would end up . We added a paddling effect to the ‘ gravy boat ’ , as we assumed the prisoner would paddle as they got faithful to land,“saysFedor Baart , a hydraulic engineer at Deltares who is an expert on particle trailing .
Their model , which you may watchhere , shows a narrow window for succeeder . If they launched their raft anytime before 2300 ( 11:00 p.m. ) , they would be swept out into the ocean . Anytime after 1 a.m. , and the lunar time period would have crowd them back into the true laurel .
" In both cases they would have spent so much time in the H2O , they plausibly would have died of hypothermia , or they would have been peck up by the police because sunrise was at 0600 , " Dr. Rolf Hut explained to theBBC .
But between 2300 and 0100 , or right around midnight , the threesome would have had a luck if they totter heavily northward . The tide would have work in their favor and they could have ended up at the leatherneck headlands in the northern site of the Golden Gate Bridge .
It sounds like a slim probability , but an additional part of the model keep going this possibility . The pretending shows that in the event that they did embark around midnight , any debris would be carried by the currents towards Angel Island , which is where the FBI found a paddle and some other personal belongings .
