Once again , Antarctica ’s in trouble . New inquiry reveals that if our greenhouse gas emissions continue to scarper into the atmosphereunchecked , the southern continent ’s Totten Glacier will back away inland at an accelerated charge per unit , pushing up sea levels by around 2 meter ( 6.6 feet ) in the next few centuries .
According to a newNaturestudy , should the front of the glacier retreat accomplish roughly 150 kilometers ( 93 geographical mile ) from its current position , it will record an irreversible state wherein it will inexorably shrink up to a further 250 kilometers ( 155 miles ) inland , causing a huge inflow of meltwater into the ocean . The glacier , part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet ( EAIS ) , is prodigious : It ’s about thearea of Spain , and if the entire thing melted , it would cause 3.9 meters ( 12.8 feet ) of sea level ascent .
“ The grounds fall together is painting a motion-picture show of East Antarctica being much more vulnerable to a heating surroundings than we recall , ” Professor Martin Siegert , co - author of the paper and a glaciologist at Imperial College London , said in astatement . “ This is something we should worry about . ”
The Totten Glacier . Esmee van Wijk / Australia Antarctic Division
Rooted deep below sea grade , much like the glaciers inWest Antarctica , Totten is uncover to increasingly warm saltwater , which has been undersell its al-Qa’ida for some time now . Aprevious studyindicated that there is a 5 - kilometer - wide ( 3.1 - geographical mile - wide ) valley beneath it , which is supply corrosive seawater the perfect path to its pertly exposed base .
As is always the case , consistently warm ocean open temperatures will induce icing masses to pull in one’s horns . However , thebedrock underneath the icehas a huge influence on how the ice break , with sure “ precarious ” configurations causing it to back out quicker by allow warmer water to flood in , or by encouraging the wintry base to flow faster by dipping at a unconscionable angle .
For this work , the outside squad of researchers decided to use airborne geophysical surveying proficiency topeer through the iceand look at the sedimentary rocks shroud beneath the glacier . for see how the glacier will respond to mood change in the future , they wished to utilize its geologic record to see how it behaved to fluctuate temperatures in the past .
By mapping out the eroding - encouraging zone of bedrock , the research worker could confidently say at what power point Totten ’s erosion would begin to quicken . As it turns out , there is a dangerous slope zone in the glacier ’s current mid - region that , if arrive at , would force the glacier to dead recede back to a more stable position further inland .
The glacier ’s catchment field as attend from above . Australian Antarctic Division
The last clip Totten retreated further back from this point was during thePliocene era , about 3.5 million years ago . Back then , atmospherical atomic number 6 dioxide levels were at 400 parts per million , which is about where they are now .
“ The atmosphere [ back then ] was a duet of level warmer than it is now , which is in line with what we expect for the final stage of this century if we do nothing about it , ” Siegert toldBBC News . If man - made clime change continues unabated , “ the Pliocene is where we ’re head , " and the point of no return for the glacier ’s retreat is getting closer every day .
Although it would take several centuries for this major hideaway to come , it all finally adds up : By 2500 , the continue thaw of the Antarctic land methamphetamine hydrochloride will cause aremarkable 15 meters(49 feet ) in global ocean level rise , enough to engulf declamatory coastal cities across the world .
