The recent attacks in Canada have raised concerns about lone - wolf terrorists who run without orders from grouping abroad . phallus of Congress say it ’s a“huge ” threatthat require pre - emptives measures . But experts say lone - brute aggressor are a rare phenomenon , and efforts to stop them are a waste of time and money .
look on CNN , Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinsteinwarned :
“ The multiplicity of tone-beginning in 2014 is show propaganda is having some effect , ” she said , noting that she did not retrieve recruits see the “ vicious side ” of the Islamic extremism .
Feinstein allege , “ the only defence is word . You have to ferret it out , you have to be able to watch it , and you have to be capable to cut off them . ”
In truth , however , such measures are ineffectual and pricy — which is why , within the FBI , sample to prevent lonely - savage attacks is describe as a BFWAT , or a Big Fucking Waste of an Agent ’s prison term .
A Lethal Needle In A Haystack
The metier is account the attacks in Canada as an “ intelligence bankruptcy , ” noting that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service ( CSIS ) and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police ( RCMP ) released a report sooner this calendar month , which name 90 radicalized Canadians who were either trying to leave Canada and fight for the Islamic State militant in Iraq , or planning to launch attacks in Canada .
One such radical was Martin Rouleau - Couture , a Quebecer who had converted to Islam and had already attempted to travel to Iraq . He killed a veteran member of the Canadian forces in an fire near a Quebec military base .
However , writingin Foreign Policy , David Gomez — a former FBI special factor on counter - terrorism — take note that Michael Zehaf - Bibeau , who carried out the shootings at Parliament Hill in Ottawa , was neither a “ in high spirits anteriority ” nor on the inclination of “ 90 or so individuals under condemnable investigation as potential threats . ”
True lone Friedrich August Wolf , he sound out , remain a passably rarefied phenomenon by law enforcement or criminal investigative standard :
No one familiar with law enforcement procedures will be surprised to hear that Zehaf - Bibeau was n’t on the microwave radar of the RCMP or CSIS . Until he start his shooting fling , Zehaf - Bibeau had committed no late law-breaking nor wire any specific intent to do so . Yet the Globe and Mail reported later that Zehaf - Bibeau “ tried and failed to use prayer as a shield against the drug habituation and mental instability stalking him through adulthood . ” And the New York Times reported “ despite a condemnable record , an embracement of ultra idea and an intent to locomote to Syria ” Zehaf - Bibeau “ was not identified as a threat . ”
Even if Zehaf - Bibeau had somehow signal his growing radicalization , the RCMP would still have been constrained in its ability to investigate him . In the United States the standard is for “ fair suspicion . ” In Canada it is the same . Prior to the shooting there was no grounds that the shooter gift a specific or articulable threat .
The public dilemma for the RCMP , and also the FBI in the U.S. , is how to place the less than one per centum of offender who will evolve and senesce into violent , psychopathologic , spree - killing terrorist — and , peradventure , ego - organized lone wolf wrongdoer — without violating their civil right wing — and everyone else ’s . Absent specific intelligence to direct law enforcement to the most dangerous terrorist threats and grow reasonable suspicion to afford a causa , the FBI or RCMP will be forced to guide assessments on every wanna - be jihadist , angsty teenager with a score , psychopath look for an excuse to kill , and mostly disorganized murderous wing - nut seeking revenge — whether spiritual or otherwise — to happen that one percent muse a potential “ lone wolf ” terrorist .
A Sign of Weakness
societal medium today does make it far gentle for an organization with a clean message to urge on others to take some action . Indeed , the Islamic State has already hailed Zehaf - Bibeau as one of their own on Twitter .
But , we should n’t imbue the Islamic State ( ISIS ) and other terrorist group with the great power to trigger lonely - wolf terrorist as if they were sleeper agent hold back to be aerate . The power to invigorate does not understand into “ world-wide ambit . ” veridical exponent come from the capability to plan and follow up a threat attack from half a world away .
In that respect , psychoanalyst Jeff Danovich , a U.S. Army veteran of the Iraq War , explainsthat Ottawa ’s sole hit man should be seen as a sign of the Islamic State ’s impuissance :
ISIS is actually less successful than Osama bin - Laden - era al - Qaeda , which devise , planned , fund , controlled , coordinated , and executed an attack on the United States in three places at once . Before they did it , no one would have thought it could be done .
That is not to say that we should not be disquieted about attacks such as what take lieu in Ottawa . The point is that just because ISIS ’ well - oiled propaganda machine claims it can strike at the heart of westerly states at will does not intend we should take it at face value . assaulter such as Zehaf - Bibeau are a threat . But because one man — or even a few men — are inhale by ISIS propaganda to polish off innocent people does not mean that “ ISIS is winning ” or that ISIS can strike anywhere . unhappily , it just means that there are lone , alienated , and ill-conceived individuals who have grievances against society which ISIS is to the full ready to work . This is the same tactic used by sexual urge traffickers , drug dealers , and pedophiles .
As Canadians — and the balance of the world — decide how to respond to this tragedy , we should keep in judgment that the finish of terrorism is to force political variety and concessions in the target through the use of and fear of violence . Believing ISIS claim that it is responsible in any enceinte meter for the Ottawa attack and is a powerful “ Islamic State ” would give the organization more reference than it deserves and be an undeserved triumph for its propaganda machine .
“ ISIS is an exploitative , murderous army of criminals that should be eradicate , ” Danovich argues , “ but we should not flow the atmosphere or terror they are attempt to create to affect our political systems and change the way we live our lives . ”
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